The “ tipping point” is when the hydrocycle degrades and the drier conditions transform the Amazonian vegetation into a savanna - a process that some scientists say is close to happening in parts of the Amazon.Ĭarlos Nobre, one of the researchers who first identified the Amazon’s tipping point in 2018, told Mongabay by email that the dry season is four to five weeks longer now in the Southern Amazon than compared with 1970. “The main message to me is that this study reinforces the understanding that deforestation reduces rainfall, which reduces forest resilience and increases the risk of tipping points and negative impacts on local economic activities,” Bernardo Flores, a scientist in ecosystem resilience at the Federal University of Santa Catarina who wasn’t involved in this study, told Mongabay by phone. The results strengthen the case of the Amazon Rainforest’s vulnerability to human activity. This approach has allowed the researchers to account for influencing climate factors, such as El Niño and La Niña, and demonstrate a clear correlation between human activity and reductions in regional rainfall. “It gives us more information about what it is about tropical deforestation that most affects the climate in terms of precipitation.” “The key thing that we do differently is that we’ve got a range of spatial scales, so we can understand at the different size scales if there’s any differences in precipitation,” Callum Smith, a researcher at the University of Leeds and the lead study author, told Mongabay by video call. At the time, scientists reported droughts were likely to become increasingly intense and occur more frequently due to climate change. In 2010, the main rivers that make up the Amazon basin experienced strong droughts. At the largest scale measured - 40,000 square kilometers (15,444 square miles) of affected area - monthly rainfall was 0.25 percentage point (or 0.1 mm) lower for every 1 percentage point of forest loss. Even deforestation on a small scale caused some decline, but the greatest impact was observed in areas larger than 2,500 square kilometers (965 square miles) where a reduction of evapotranspiration - the pumping of moisture from trees into the atmosphere - is most dominant. The study published in the journal Nature on March 1 used satellite-based precipitation datasets from 2003 to 2017 to reveal that tropical forest loss in the Amazon, Congo and Southeast Asia causes significant decreases in annual mean rainfall. Experts hope this growing body of compelling evidence will encourage decision-makers to create protection policies that can engage these communities as well. It confirms what scientists and activists have been saying for years: Human-led deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest is causing irregular rainfall patterns not only around the globe but at a local level, leading to conditions that wreck ecological cycles and cripple communities that live in deforested areas. For some local Amazonian communities, who depend on logging, mining and ranching, these claims have stood in the way of their livelihoods, creating a standoff between conservationists and deforesters.īut a new study shows that these local communities should be alarmed about the future of their environment too. Scientists and activists have tirelessly campaigned for the protection of forests to mitigate rising global temperatures and preserve humanity’s future. Environmentalists see this research as an opportunity to reshape conservation activism and policy towards local communities.Experts say this research reinforces the findings of other studies that claim the Amazon is leaning toward its “tipping point” and the southern regions are gradually becoming drier.A new study supports mounting evidence that deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest correlates with a reduction in regional rainfall.
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